{"id":5424,"date":"2014-08-13T17:21:00","date_gmt":"2023-10-18T17:21:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.salesforce.com\/?p=5424"},"modified":"2023-10-18T17:36:06","modified_gmt":"2023-10-18T17:36:06","slug":"why-your-forecasts-stink","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.salesforce.com\/ca\/blog\/why-your-forecasts-stink\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Your Forecasts Stink"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Sales forecasting is an activity that consumes an enormous amount of management\u2019s time, yet few organizations are happy with the accuracy of their collective forecasting efforts. So how is it that sales forces can expend so much effort on forecasting and still produce revenue predictions that stink? To find out, Vantage Point recently turned its research engine toward sales forecasting in an effort to identify the <b>sources of forecasting failure<\/b> as well as the <b>best practices that can make sales forecasting more accurate<\/b>.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Our first observation is that many sales forces are using forecasting models that don\u2019t reflect the way their sales forces actually sell. The predominant forecasting approach is, of course, to build the sales forecast off of a pipeline of opportunities that are being actively pursued by the sales force. Each opportunity is slotted into a stage of the company\u2019s sales process, and a percentage is then applied to the deals in each stage to generate a probability-adjusted revenue prediction. In fact, our research shows that 85% of business-to-business sales forces currently forecast using this tried-and-true method. So what\u2019s the problem with that?<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">We will set aside for the moment the many problems with how this opportunity forecasting method is being executed, and we\u2019ll instead focus on a more fundamental issue that cripples many sales forecasts. The issue is the fact that you should probably be using a forecasting method <i>other<\/i> than the classic \u2018opportunity\u2019 forecasting approach\u2014one that is based on something other than a pipeline of deals with probability-weighted stages.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Our research revealed that there are at least 3 other methods of sales forecasting that return better results in certain situations. For instance, sales forecasting should be done at the \u2018account\u2019 level, if you have a business model where a high number of deals flow from a handful of existing customers. Or perhaps you should be forecasting at the \u2018territory\u2019 level, if your salespeople cover geographies with dozens or even hundreds of accounts. And perhaps you should be forecasting at the \u2018call\u2019 level, if your sales team makes a high volume of outbound sales calls on unfamiliar prospects. In fact, in our <a href=\"http:\/\/bit.ly\/1sojZIJ\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">survey<\/a> of 62 global sales forces, <b>74% said that they <i>should<\/i> be basing their forecasts on something other than opportunities<\/b>. But they aren\u2019t\u2014<b>only 34% claim that they <i>are<\/i> using a different forecasting method<\/b>. Yeah&#8230;that could be a problem.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">If your forecasts are based on a model that isn\u2019t relevant for your sales force, then it\u2019s easy to see why your forecasts stink. You\u2019re developing your forecasts using <a href=\"\/blog\/2014\/04\/the-crm-data.html\" target=\"_blank\" adhocenable=\"false\" rel=\"noopener\">data and assumptions<\/a> that don\u2019t reflect what is actually happening in the field. It would be like trying to read this article while moving your eyes from right to left rather than left to right: you\u2019d be taking in a jumble of information that your mind can\u2019t process, because you\u2019re be following the wrong process. Similarly, we\u2019ve seen a remarkable number of companies try to shoehorn their forecasts into an opportunity-based model with stages and percentages, when it just didn\u2019t make any sense to do so. And not surprisingly, their forecasts didn\u2019t make any sense either. <\/p>\n<p>So if you\u2019re using a traditional opportunity-based forecasting model and suffer from erratic forecasts, you might consider whether you should be using a different method to develop your forecasts\u2014one that more closely reflects the reality of your sales force. Otherwise, you will continue to invest large chunks of time in an activity that will never yield better results. And that stinks worse than the bad forecasts.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"\/\/www.salesforce.com\/content\/dam\/blogs\/legacy\/2014\/08\/6a00e54ee3905b883301a3fd20e3d3970.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"Jason-jordan\" src=\"\/\/www.salesforce.com\/content\/dam\/blogs\/legacy\/2014\/08\/6a00e54ee3905b883301a3fd20e3d3970.jpg\/_jcr_content\/renditions\/120wi.jpg\" alt=\"Jason-jordan\"><\/img><\/a><i>Jason Jordan is author of the Amazon.com best-seller <a href=\"http:\/\/crackingthesalesmanagementcode.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Cracking the Sales Management Code<\/a> and a partner at <a href=\"http:\/\/www.vantagepointperformance.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Vantage Point Performance<\/a>, the leading sales management training company in the world. He helps sales leadership teams improve sales performance by implementing management best practices revealed in his groundbreaking research. Follow him on Twitter: <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/JasonRJordan\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">@JasonRJordan<\/a><\/i><\/p>\n<p>Harness your sales data with Salesforce. Learn more by <a href=\"http:\/\/www.salesforce.com\/?d=70130000000lpG5\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">visiting our website<\/a> or downloading the free e-book below.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.salesforce.com\/ca\/form\/data\/ebook-grow-data.jsp?d=70130000000tfUe&amp;nc=70130000000tcjf\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"Grow_With_Data_Banners_600x100\" src=\"\/\/www.salesforce.com\/content\/dam\/blogs\/legacy\/2014\/08\/6a00e54ee3905b883301a3fa94f673970.jpg\/_jcr_content\/renditions\/800wi.jpg\" alt=\"Grow_With_Data_Banners_600x100\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a><\/p>\n<p> <span id=\"authorRoot\" path=\"\/content\/blogs\/ca\/en\/authors\/\"><\/span> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Sales forecasting is an activity that consumes an enormous amount of management\u2019s time, yet few organizations are happy with the accuracy of their collective forecasting efforts. So how is it that sales forces can expend so much effort on forecasting and still produce revenue predictions that<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5426,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sf_justforyou_enable_alt":true,"optimizely_content_id":"","post_meta_title":"","ai_synopsis":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"sf_topic":[127,4],"sf_content_type":[],"coauthors":[2],"class_list":["post-5424","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","sf_topic-featured","sf_topic-sales"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Why Your Forecasts Stink - Salesforce<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Sales forecasting is an activity that consumes an enormous amount of management\u2019s time, yet few organizations are happy with the accuracy of their collective forecasting efforts. So how is it that sales forces can expend so much effort on forecasting and still produce revenue predictions that\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.salesforce.com\/ca\/blog\/why-your-forecasts-stink\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why Your Forecasts Stink\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Sales forecasting is an activity that consumes an enormous amount of management\u2019s time, yet few organizations are happy with the accuracy of their collective forecasting efforts. 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