{"id":69688,"date":"2023-08-23T06:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-08-23T13:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.salesforce.com\/?p=69688"},"modified":"2024-09-16T14:53:12","modified_gmt":"2024-09-16T21:53:12","slug":"salesforce-holiday-predictions-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.salesforce.com\/news\/stories\/salesforce-holiday-predictions-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Salesforce 2023 Holiday Forecast: AI Gives Retailers Hope as Shoppers Watch Their Wallets"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Continuing a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.salesforce.com\/blog\/shopping-index-q2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">sluggish<\/a> first half of the year for retail, 2023 online holiday sales are expected to reach $1.19 trillion globally \u2014 remaining essentially flat year over year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>How retail can respond:<\/strong> Data from more than 1.5 billion consumers indicates that retailers should look to drive revenue and preserve margins with well-planned discounts and updated return policies.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The savviest retailers will also tap predictive and generative AI to win this holiday season.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>According to the report, personalized customer service, marketing promotions, and commerce experiences powered by AI will drive $194 billion in global online holiday spend.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Why it\u2019s relevant: <\/strong>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.salesforce.com\/resources\/research-reports\/shopping-index\/?d=cta-body-promo-8\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Salesforce Shopping Index<\/a> analyzes global data from more than 1.5 billion consumers on retail sites using Salesforce\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.salesforce.com\/products\/?d=cta-body-promo-8\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Customer 360<\/a> (including 24 of the top 30 U.S. online retailers) to forecast holiday spending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<aside class=\"contextual-driver has-text-align-left contextual-driver--einstein\">\n\t<header class=\"tidbit-header\">\n\t\t<h2 class=\"tidbit-head\">\n\t\t\tPower growth everywhere with Commerce GPT\t\t<\/h2>\n\t<\/header>\n\t<div class=\"tidbit-body\">\n\t\t<p><\/p>\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<p class=\"tidbit-link label\">\n\t\t\t<a class=\"label has-right-arrow has-right-arrow--small\" href=\"https:\/\/www.salesforce.com\/products\/commerce\/?d=cta-body-promo-8%20%20\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>Learn more<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 14 10\">\n\t<path d=\"M13.92 5.38a1 1 0 000-.76.9.9 0 00-.17-.26.25.25 0 000-.07l-4-4a1 1 0 00-1.46 1.42L10.59 4H1.07a1 1 0 000 2h9.52l-2.3 2.29a1 1 0 000 1.42 1 1 0 001.42 0l4-4a.25.25 0 000-.07.9.9 0 00.21-.26z\" \/>\n<\/svg>\n\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t<img class=\"tidbit img-einstein\"\n\t\tsrcset=\"\n\t\t\thttps:\/\/www.salesforce.com\/news\/wp-content\/themes\/newsroom\/assets\/images\/article-tidbit-einstein-large@0.5x.png 84w,\n\t\t\thttps:\/\/www.salesforce.com\/news\/wp-content\/themes\/newsroom\/assets\/images\/article-tidbit-einstein-large@1x.png 168w,\n\t\t\thttps:\/\/www.salesforce.com\/news\/wp-content\/themes\/newsroom\/assets\/images\/article-tidbit-einstein-large@2x.png 336w\n\t\t\"\n\t\tsrc=\"https:\/\/www.salesforce.com\/news\/wp-content\/themes\/newsroom\/assets\/images\/article-tidbit-einstein-large@1x.png\"\n\t\talt=\"Illustration of einstein\"\n\t\tsizes=\"(min-width:1024px) 175px, 130px\"\n\t>\n\t<\/aside>\n\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Insights on the 2023 holiday shopping season (Nov. 1-Dec. 31):<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Digital sales growth levels off: <\/strong>Waning consumer confidence and excess inventory have retailers bracing for a challenging holiday season. Salesforce forecasts 4% global and 1% U.S. year-over-year online sales growth across November and December \u2013 reaching $1.19 trillion and $273 billion respectively. Sixty percent of these sales \u2013 or $714 billion globally \u2013 will be influenced by frontline workers in the store by a combination of creating demand and fulfilling online orders at retail locations.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>AI catches consumers\u2019 eyes \u2014 and wallets: <\/strong>17% of shoppers <a href=\"https:\/\/www.salesforce.com\/news\/stories\/trends-in-retail-2023\">re<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.salesforce.com\/news\/stories\/trends-in-retail-2023\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">port<\/a> they\u2019ve already used generative AI for purchase inspiration. The technology will influence $194 billion in global online holiday shopping spend as retailers use predictive and generative AI for operational efficiencies and personalized shopping experiences.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Discounts come early this year: <\/strong>Price-conscious shoppers will seek attractive discounts and to compete, retailers will kick off their promotions early to pull forward demand.\u00a0\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Salesforce expects a flurry of promotional events in early October \u2013 leveraging the halo effect of Amazon\u2019s fall Prime Day \u2013 followed by aggressive discounts throughout Cyber Week.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Salesforce anticipates global discount rates to rise to 19% in October and peak at 29% during Cyber Week. Despite the attractive early discounts, consumers will likely hold off for the best and final deals toward the end of the season.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Additionally, 25% of all holiday digital sales will take place during the Cyber Week seven-day period.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<aside class=\"more-from-block more-from-block--2 alignfull wp-block-newsroom-moreontopic\">\n\t<div class=\"more-from-block__content\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h4 class=\"more-from-block__title\">Related<\/h4>\n\t\t\n\t\t<div class=\"more-from-block__cards more-from-block__cards--2\"\n\t\t\t\t>\n\t\t\t\n\n<article\t\t\titemscope=\"\"\n\t\titemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/Article\"\n\t\tdata-card-id=\"91836\"\n\t\tclass=\"content-card content-card--large-inline is-entire-area-clickable content-card--is-boxed\"\n\t\t\tdata-clickable-area-link=\"https:\/\/www.salesforce.com\/news\/stories\/google-universal-commerce-protocol-support-announcement\/\"\n\t>\n\t\t\t<div class=\"content-card__image-container\" itemprop=\"image\" itemscope itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\">\n\t\t\t<img width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/www.salesforce.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/Salesforce-Announces-Support-for-Googles-Universal-Commerce-Protocol-Bringing-Product-Discovery-and-Transactions-into-Every-AI-Conversation.png?w=1024\" class=\"content-card__image\" alt=\"Salesforce Support for Google&#039;s Universal Commerce Protocol\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.salesforce.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/Salesforce-Announces-Support-for-Googles-Universal-Commerce-Protocol-Bringing-Product-Discovery-and-Transactions-into-Every-AI-Conversation.png 1200w, 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https:\/\/www.salesforce.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/Salesforce-Announces-Support-for-Googles-Universal-Commerce-Protocol-Bringing-Product-Discovery-and-Transactions-into-Every-AI-Conversation.png?w=343&amp;h=193 343w\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\n\t<div class=\"content-card__content-container content-card__content-container--style-\">\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3 itemprop=\"headline\" class=\"content-card__title\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a\n\t\t\t\t\t\thref=\"https:\/\/www.salesforce.com\/news\/stories\/google-universal-commerce-protocol-support-announcement\/\"\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\ttarget=\"_blank\"\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tclass=\"content-card__title-link\"\n\t\t\t\t\t>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tSalesforce Announces Support for Google&#8217;s Universal Commerce Protocol to Bring Product Discovery and Checkout into Conversational AI\t\t\t\t<\/a>\t\t\t<\/h3>\n\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t<div itemprop=\"readTime\" class=\"content-card__read-time\">\n\t\t\t\t3 min read\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n<\/article>\n\n\n\n<article\t\t\titemscope=\"\"\n\t\titemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/Article\"\n\t\tdata-card-id=\"91120\"\n\t\tclass=\"content-card content-card--large-inline is-entire-area-clickable content-card--is-boxed\"\n\t\t\tdata-clickable-area-link=\"https:\/\/www.salesforce.com\/news\/stories\/2025-cyber-week-predictions\/\"\n\t>\n\t\t\t<div class=\"content-card__image-container\" itemprop=\"image\" itemscope itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\">\n\t\t\t<img width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/www.salesforce.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/11\/Salesforce-2025-Cyber-Week-Shopping-Predictions.png?w=1024\" class=\"content-card__image\" alt=\"Salesforce Releases 2025 Cyber Week Predictions\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.salesforce.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/11\/Salesforce-2025-Cyber-Week-Shopping-Predictions.png 1200w, https:\/\/www.salesforce.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/11\/Salesforce-2025-Cyber-Week-Shopping-Predictions.png?w=300&amp;h=169 300w, https:\/\/www.salesforce.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/11\/Salesforce-2025-Cyber-Week-Shopping-Predictions.png?w=768&amp;h=432 768w, https:\/\/www.salesforce.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/11\/Salesforce-2025-Cyber-Week-Shopping-Predictions.png?w=1024&amp;h=576 1024w, https:\/\/www.salesforce.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/11\/Salesforce-2025-Cyber-Week-Shopping-Predictions.png?w=264&amp;h=149 264w, https:\/\/www.salesforce.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/11\/Salesforce-2025-Cyber-Week-Shopping-Predictions.png?w=500&amp;h=281 500w, https:\/\/www.salesforce.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/11\/Salesforce-2025-Cyber-Week-Shopping-Predictions.png?w=678&amp;h=381 678w, https:\/\/www.salesforce.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/11\/Salesforce-2025-Cyber-Week-Shopping-Predictions.png?w=150&amp;h=84 150w, https:\/\/www.salesforce.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/11\/Salesforce-2025-Cyber-Week-Shopping-Predictions.png?w=314&amp;h=177 314w, https:\/\/www.salesforce.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/11\/Salesforce-2025-Cyber-Week-Shopping-Predictions.png?w=343&amp;h=193 343w\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\n\t<div class=\"content-card__content-container content-card__content-container--style-\">\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3 itemprop=\"headline\" class=\"content-card__title\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a\n\t\t\t\t\t\thref=\"https:\/\/www.salesforce.com\/news\/stories\/2025-cyber-week-predictions\/\"\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\ttarget=\"_blank\"\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tclass=\"content-card__title-link\"\n\t\t\t\t\t>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tSalesforce Data: Amid Record-Breaking Cyber Week, AI Agents Expected to Influence $73B in Sales\t\t\t\t<\/a>\t\t\t<\/h3>\n\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t<div itemprop=\"readTime\" class=\"content-card__read-time\">\n\t\t\t\t5 min read\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n<\/article>\n\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<noscript>\n<div class=\"pagination-fallback\">\n\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.salesforce.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69688\/page\/2\/?bc=OTH#section-title\">\n\t\t\tOlder Posts\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t<\/div>\n<\/noscript>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/aside>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Retailers take a closer look at returns: <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.salesforce.com\/news\/stories\/trends-in-retail-2023\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">88% of retailers<\/a> say they will make their return policies stricter ahead of the holidays, which presents a risk.\u00a0\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Retailers who rein in their return policies could see a slower start to the holidays. Based on previous years\u2019 data, Salesforce predicts that retailers with return windows of 30 days or less will see 7% fewer online sales in October and November.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Poor return experiences \u2013 those that aren\u2019t clear, easy, and reasonable \u2013 will put 21% of online orders at risk this holiday.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>Despite a slowdown in online spending, brands that activate customer data and insights to execute effective promotions, relevant engagements powered by AI, and seamless experiences across channels will keep shoppers coming back over the holidays.<\/p>\n<cite>Rob Garf, VP &amp; GM, Retail<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Salesforce perspective: <\/strong>\u201cAfter a few years of accelerated ecommerce adoption throughout the pandemic, retailers are under pressure to drive sustainable growth and customer loyalty \u2013 while maintaining margins. Despite a slowdown in online spending, brands that activate customer data and insights to execute effective promotions, relevant engagements powered by AI, and seamless experiences across channels will keep shoppers coming back over the holidays.\u201d \u2013 Rob Garf, VP &amp; GM, Retail<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Go deeper:&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Find out how retailers will drive success and innovation this holiday season <a href=\"https:\/\/www.salesforce.com\/blog\/retail-predictions\/#:~:text=Retail%20prediction%201%3A%20Retailers%20will,by%20expanding%20into%20new%20industries.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Visit the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.salesforce.com\/resources\/research-reports\/retail-holiday-insights\/?d=cta-body-promo-8\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Holiday Insights Hub<\/a> for more shopping predictions and analysis<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>View Salesforce\u2019s 2022 holiday season findings <a href=\"https:\/\/www.salesforce.com\/news\/press-releases\/2023\/01\/09\/2022-holiday-online-shopping-data\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Learn about Salesforce\u2019s generative AI offerings for commerce <a href=\"https:\/\/www.salesforce.com\/products\/ecommerce-ai-tools\/?d=cta-body-promo-8\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><em>2023 Salesforce holiday insights and predictions methodology<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Powered by Commerce Cloud, Salesforce analyzed aggregated data to produce holiday insights from the activity of more than 1.5 billion global shoppers across more than 64 countries, with a focus on 12 key markets: the U.S., Canada, U.K., Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Japan, the Netherlands, Australia\/New Zealand, the Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan, Australia, and New Zealand), and the Nordics. This battery of benchmarks provides a deep look into the last nine quarters and the current state of digital commerce. Several factors are applied to extrapolate macroeconomic figures for the broader retail industry, and these results are not indicative of Salesforce performance.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The prediction data that we present are from proprietary Salesforce research. The calculations we use blend first-party and third-party data, as well as several market assumptions, to generate the data points we present.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Continuing a sluggish first half of the year for retail, 2023 online holiday sales are expected to reach $1.19 trillion globally \u2014 remaining essentially flat year over year. How retail can respond: Data from more than 1.5 billion consumers indicates that retailers should look to drive revenue and preserve margins with well-planned discounts and updated [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":69695,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sf_subhead":"","sf_i18n_disclaimer":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"alternateThumbnailId":0,"sf_product_cta_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"sf_content_type":[1728],"sf_theme":[1912],"sf_topic":[1737],"sf_product":[1760,2363],"sf_industry":[],"sf_role":[],"sf_multimedia_asset":[],"sf_location":[1798],"sf_collection":[2838],"sf_visibility":[],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-69688","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","sf_content_type-snapshots","sf_theme-digital-transformation","sf_topic-artificial-intelligence","sf_product-agentforce-commerce","sf_product-customer-360","sf_location-global","sf_collection-future-of-crm"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - 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