Extra holiday insight thanks to data from over 1 billion global shoppers.

It doesn’t take a crystal ball to know November and December account for nearly a third of your annual sales. But every holiday season brings new challenges. So we bring fresh holiday insights — starting with predictions — to keep retailers informed and inspired every step of the way.


Holiday predictions for retail leaders in 2021.



Online sales will continue to surge.

2020 broke records. This year we predict online sales will continue to grow, up to 10% in the U.S. and 7% around the globe. Put another way, between November and December, online shoppers will spend $259B in the U.S. and $1.2T globally. And thanks to better omni-channel experiences, you can expect shoppers to keep clicking “add to cart” even past the shipping cutoff.


Rising costs will squeeze everyone.

Labor, freight, and manufacturing costs are going up around the world. We predict consumers will pay 20% more for their holiday gifts as retailers and manufacturers face an additional $223B in the cost of goods. Get ahead of margin and price pressure by communicating clearly and often with your shoppers.


Pre-gaming Cyber Week will pad your bottom line.

With inventory scarce and global supply chains still playing catch-up, we predict consumers will be extra eager for pre-sales. That means Black Friday, while still important for you, will give way to something like a pre-Cyber Week with multiple Black Friday-like events. This should result in $31B in U.S. online spend and $141B globally before Cyber Week even begins.


A Christmas without cookies.

Not as sad as it sounds. Google and Apple are phasing out cookies and third-party ad tracking, which means you’ll need first-party data to find and engage customers. We’re talking loyalty programs, organic social and influencer engagement, and personalized email marketing. Then you can use that data to create personalized experiences shoppers love.

The forecast calls for creativity.

Unlike the weather report, you can count on our holiday predictions to steer you right, even in a climate of rapid change. This year, success depends on thinking differently about how and when you connect with shoppers. Stay tuned for fresh insights all season long, and check out the resources below for more on how to make this year’s holiday season extra successful.

More Resources







To help retailers and brands benchmark holiday performance, Salesforce combined data and holiday insights on the activity of more than a billion global shoppers across more than 40 countries powered by Commerce Cloud, billions of consumer engagements and millions of public social media conversations through Marketing Cloud, and customer service data powered by Service Cloud. Several factors are subsequently applied to extrapolate projections and actuals for the broader retail industry. These holiday flash reports are a derivative of the quarterly Shopping Index.