The Latest 2023 Forecast
Moderate Sales
Growth
Moderate Sales
Growth
We predict a moderate year-over-year global sales growth of 4% for November–December,
totaling $1.19 trillion.
Discount
Calendar
Discount
Calendar
Forecasts show discount rates will rise briefly in October and peak at 29% in Cyber Week.
Return Window
Impact
Return Window
Impact
Retailers with return windows of 30 days or less will see 7% fewer sales in October and November.
Discover 5 factors that will impact 2023 holiday sales.
AI will shape digital sales.
AI will shape digital sales.
The biggest trend that's sweeping retail is using all the new capabilities of artificial intelligence. Retail industry leaders are finding new ways to use AI to drive sales by being more relevant and convenient for every shopper. As consumers continue to engage with marketing, buying, and service experiences generated by artificial intelligence, both generative and predictive artificial intelligence will influence $194 billion in global online holiday shopping spend.
Reducing Returns
Poor returns experiences will scare away customers.
Poor returns experiences will scare away customers.
Lowering and managing returns have never been more important for the retail industry. The share of online order returns increased 11% in the first quarter of this year alone. And since 81% of shoppers report they’ve stopped purchasing from a brand or retailer after one bad return experience, returns experiences are already having oversized impacts on initial sales. For this coming year, we predict that poor returns experiences, policies, and processes mean 21% of online orders are at risk of being lost.
BOPIS will continue to drive purchases.
BOPIS will continue to drive purchases.
Buy-online-pick-up-in-store (BOPIS) options exploded in 2020 and have remained an integral part of the holiday shopping experience. During the 2022 holiday shopping season, BOPIS drove one in five online orders, and that surged to over one in three orders after the shipping cutoff dates. While BOPIS is complex to execute, the payoff is big for your online and in-store bottom lines. We predict BOPIS will drive $28 billion in incremental global store sales.
Social sales
Social media ads will deliver peak ROI.
Social media ads will deliver peak ROI.
As the digital shopping journey becomes more complex, social media is playing an inflated role in spurring and directing sales. In fact, in Q1 2023 traffic referrals from social media platforms grew 27% year over year. And social media’s influence is starting to affect in-store sales too. One of the biggest shifts we’ve seen in social media is the decline in influencer effectiveness and the increase in social ad impact. This year, we predict that social media advertising will drive 10 times more online holiday shopping visits than traditional marketing.
Shoppers embrace resale to save money — and the planet.
Shoppers embrace resale to save money — and the planet.
Ever since the launch of original online auction houses like eBay, the resale market has been a key part of online retail. And now brands are starting to bring that practice in-house by adding places on their websites specifically for reselling items. What’s driving this latest surge in resale? Our research shows resale shoppers are driven by savings, sustainability, and speed. With resale continuing to grow faster than ever, we predict 17% of gifts this holiday will be resold items, saving 32 billion pounds of waste going to landfills.
Stay tuned for more peak season predictions and insights.
Discover more shopping trends.
More resources
Guide
The 2023 Holiday Guide for Retailers
Use real-time data and artificial intelligence to create customer loyalty that lasts all year.
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Discover the trends of 6,000 marketers and 2 trillion+ communications worldwide.