5 Accurate Sales Forecasting Techniques for Predictable Revenue

Predictable growth — showing consistency year over year — is everything, and the forecast is where it begins. Critical business decisions  — budgets, headcount strategy, resource investment, and future earnings – set the North Star. Sales leaders spend hundreds of hours thinking about sales forecasting techniques that lead toward predictable revenue and accurate, actionable data. The best sales forecasting techniques answer these two simple questions: How much do we plan to sell? And when will we deliver those numbers?

As sales teams work on forecasts, unpredictable events can dramatically change them. But there are principles and truths to help you navigate these changes. Learn 4 ways to start taking a more strategic approach to your forecasting challenges.

1. Your forecast can change in a flash

Extreme weather, economic crises, and global pandemics can dramatically change your forecast. What you thought you knew about expected revenue growth can suddenly flip on its head. When that happens, it’s okay to put the forecast aside.

By maintaining customer relationships now, those relationships will help you grow again when it’s time.

Forecasting is especially important for dynamic market environments. The forecast is a critical resource to plan for the months and years ahead. As soon as an extraordinary event hits, sales and finance leaders at your company will quickly want to know:

• How’s our pipeline looking today?
• What are the best- and worst-case scenarios?
• How has the forecast changed from a week or a month ago?

You’ll want to slice and dice this data by region, leader, rep, product, and more. To make this possible, reps need to double down on keeping all their data up to date. This is easy with tools like Sales Cloud’s built-in Pipeline Inspection. On one screen, you can easily filter opportunities by team or time period and see the most recent activity. This helps your team know what’s happening now, what’s likely to happen next, and what data is missing.

2. Sales forecasting in five simple questions

Before your sales forecasts can appropriately predict ‘how much’ and ‘when’, there are five key areas to consider: who, what, where, why, and how. Below are some simple questions to help your sales team establish forecasts with insights that matter:

• Who? Sales teams should make forecasts based on their prospects. Depending on if the prospects are the decision-makers or just influencers, the forecast will be more or less exact.
• What? Forecasts should be based on exactly what solutions you plan to sell. Base them on problems your prospects have voiced, which your company can uniquely solve.
• Where? In what location is the prospect making their buying decision, and where will they use the actual products? Sales teams see better accuracy when they get closer (at least for a visit) to the centre of the action.
• Why? Why is the prospect or existing customer considering new services? Is there a big event making them consider it now? Without a forcing function, the deal may stall.
• How? How does this prospect make purchasing decisions? If you’re not accounting for how they’ve done it in the past, it may be fuzzy math.

Some of these elements are plain facts, while others involve conjecture. The more you sell, the better you get at forecasts. That’s why it’s a balance of both art and science.

3. Negative forecasting can highlight business risk

You can also use your forecast to assess current risk to your business — also called negative forecasting. For example, a customer added a COVID-19 field in Sales Cloud to tag deals and see pandemic impact. The two key benefits they realised are:

• The sales team can expedite deals involving a customer needing a product related to COVID-19. 
• The company can track deals lost or pushed due to the crisis.

By doing negative forecasting to gauge risk, your forecast evolves with your business.

4. Everyone in the company needs sales forecasts — not just the sales team

Every department relies on sales forecasts, because there’s not a part of the organisation that goes unaffected when forecasts are off.

But if forecasts are off, the company faces challenges across all business functions — from pricing to product delivery, to customer service. Everyone relies on the sales organisation’s ability to pull off an accurate forecast. So don’t underestimate the importance of your forecast. Even when things change rapidly, tweak your guidance to help everyone make better decisions.

5. Technology blows old-school forecasting methods out of the water

Sales leaders operate in a ridiculously sophisticated, technology-driven environment. The gut predictions from the most confident sales rep can’t compare to the insights generated by today’s sales forecasting tech. 

For example, commercial retail property group Vicinity Centres needed to understand weekly tenant changes while streamlining sales and booking. With a sales forecasting platform, they were able to save 1,000 hours annually with automated reporting, uncover efficiencies through back-office automation and much more. See the full Vicinity Centres story.

In Salesforcorce’s own internal deployment of Sales Cloud, we forecast revenue by:

• Monitoring our entire business with a complete view of the total pipeline. 
• Tracking our top performers. We look at which reps are on track to beat their targets with up-to-the-minute leaderboards.
• Forecasting for complex sales teams. Overlay Splits allows us to credit the right amounts to sales overlays by revenue, contract value, and more.

We also use artificial intelligence (also known as predictive analytics) to make our forecasts more accurate. For instance, Sales Cloud Einstein Conversation Insights can track mentions of specific terms during sales calls, then map out trends. This helps managers reconfigure sales strategies to deliver the right products in the right way to prospects and customers.

A good forecast, sales or otherwise, helps you make better decisions about the future. Should you prepare for a rainy day? Or will it be sunglasses, shorts, and smooth sailing? Great sales forecasting gives you both accuracy and insights to deliver revenue growth and confidence. Our blueprint for sales leaders shows how the right tools can help you predict, plan, grow and succeed. Get the blueprint to becoming a forecasting pro.